Puerto Rico's Clout
Cross-posted at Telling Stories.
In what may be the ultimate irony, there are murmurs that it may be the Democratic delegation from Puerto Rico that may put Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama over the top.
The delegates will be chosen, technically at least, in a caucus in early June. Puerto Rico has 63 delegates to the Democratic convention, more than similarly sized South Carolina (54), Oklahoma (45), or Connecticut (60). The Democrats, in line with their traditions of welcoming and celebrating minorities, have long given Puerto Rico about as many delegates as it would get if it were a state, while the Republicans long gave it only a few delegates and today give it somewhat fewer delegates proportionately.
However . . . .
But one group of 63 delegates is more equal than another. Democratic delegates are supposed to be allocated by proportional representation. But that notion is alien to highly competitive Puerto Rican politics. In practice, the dominant figure in Puerto Rico identifying with the Democratic Party has seen to it that his faction gets all the territory’s delegates. . . This means that Puerto Rico is likely to have more leverage in Democratic National Convention votes than any single state, no matter how large. Its leader will be able to deliver a 63-vote margin for the leading candidate.
Emphasis added. And who will that candidate be? The answer is that it depends.
Puerto Rican parties are not aligned according to whether they are Democratic or Republican. They are aligned along favored political status. Currently, the governor is from the party that supports Commonwealth. The legislature and most of the cities and towns are controlled by the pro-statehood party. The pro-independence party basically rants from the sidelines and delivers flowery, nationalistic speeches. When you talk about national parties. Some members of the pro-commonwealth party are Democrats while others choose not to participate in national affairs. Some members of the pro-statehood party are Democrats and others are Republicans (this may be the only place in the world where Democrats and Republicans coexist within the same political entity.)
It is unclear to me who has control of the Democratic party in Puerto Rico. Regardless, this is how its going to go down: if the pro-Commonwealth party controls the delegates, they will pledge their delegates to whichever candidate pledges to leave sleeping dogs lie. If it is the pro-Statehood party, they will pledge their delegates to whichever candidate pledges to support Statehood, include it in the Democrats' platform, and commits to push the resolution of the Puerto Rican status condition by pursuing a process that will produce non-territorial solutions, i.e., statehood, free associated republic, or independence.
Personally, I don't think it will get that far. If the Democrats don't have a "prohibitive favorite" by June, things will be pretty interesting or they will be a disaster. Either way, if it comes down to Puerto Rico, you read it here first.
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Speaking of PR, is there any word that you might have as to the status of HR 900? The only source I have[1] has a bit of a cryptic comment that it was incorporated into another bill.
Thanx for the time.
1. http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h110-900
As a young mexican who supports change, honesty, and progress, i urge puerto ricans to study the two candidates and not vote for hillary because the 90's were good economically. Both candidates have similar economic strategies, and both are subject to the advice and guidance of the democratic party. Hillary es una mentirosa como su esposo. The Clintons have lied and cheated their way into power, and the youth of america are tired of their ruthless politics. They play the race card liberally, and have already managed to stir anger between blacks and hispanics on the mainland. Por favor no sean ciegos y ayudennos a elegir a un hombre de honor, de valor- un hobre con ancestros de africa y de europa, que paso su juventud en una isla, y wue tiene y unas raices y una perspectiva global. Do not give in to habit or fear of the unknown. Vote Obama and lets change the world.
Will,
As far as I can tell, on October 23, 2007, H.R. 900 was amended to require only one plebiscite, that would ask the people of P.R. whether they want to continue the status quo or want to pursue a non-territorial solution, i.e., statehood, independence or free associated republic. If the second option wins, then a subsequent vote would take place to determine whether people in P.R. prefer a plebiscite or a Constituent Assembly.
Bottom line, it's not dead. But I bet you it won't be revisited until the next Congress.
Christian,
One thing is being passionate about Obama and another is to call the Clintons liars and cheaters without discussing why. Can you say what you find so objectionable about Hillary? Or do you want to risk looking like - gulp - a Republican?
Today Hillary Clinton made her true colors known. While speaking to a reporter from USA Today, she clearly asserted that white uneducated voters, will only vote for her.
"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."
"There's a pattern emerging here," she said.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-05-07-clintoninterview_N.htm
She uses this as the bases for why she is not dropping out of the race, and why Barack Obama, the biracial candidate, cannot win in November.
Her words are sickly racist and utterly divisive. Since the Ohio and Texas primary Hillary Clinton has focused all her attention and energy in attracting white uneducated voters. By the time the race came to North Carolina and Indiana, Hillary Clinton and her Husband Bill Clinton had completely abandoned their attempts to win votes of other races. To the exclusion of Hispanics, Blacks, Asians, and Educated Whites, her campaigns only focus was to appeal to white uneducated voters. She did this in the most insulting ways imaginable. Riding in old pick-up trucks, faking a deep southern accent, and using divisive language like "stick to our own" in her speech after her dismal Indiana win.
I am writing your paper because, pundits in the US assume Puerto Ricans overwhelmingly support Hillary Clinton. I wonder if Puerto Ricans will continually support her, if they knew the real truth. Puerto Ricans do not fit into her demographic of "White Only".
I hope you read this and find it necessary to get this message out to your readers. I know I am seemingly an anonymous voice attempting to tear down a candidate I do not support. Well before this day May 8, 2008, I did support Hillary Clinton's efforts. However, after hearing what she said in her own voice, I cannot stand by her any longer
Thank you for your time