Voto Latino 2008: Time to Deliver
WASHINGTON - Registering and voting in record numbers, Latinos in key states are poised to play a decisive role in electing the next president. And that is probably not good news for Republicans.
Some new number-crunching from California and other Western states highlights the growing importance of Latino voters. This week, John McCain and Barack Obama, the two likely nominees, are campaigning in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada - three states seen as critical to reach the winning number of 270 electoral votes in November.
Democratic leaders tout increases in Latino voter registration and primary turnout as good indicators that those states - with a total of 19 electoral votes, or one less than the swing state of Ohio - are ready to switch from the GOP column to the Democrats in November.
[T]here are indicators that Latino voters are trending more Democratic. President Bush was able to capture about 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004, but that dropped to 30 percent for Republicans in the 2006 congressional races. Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief campaign strategist in 2004, has said that any GOP presidential candidate needs 38 percent to 40 percent of the Latino vote to win.
Rosenberg said a Latino backlash against the anti-immigrant stance of many Republicans has fueled the surge in registration and turnout. This year, he said, exit polls show 3.6 million Latinos have voted in Democratic primaries, compared with 1 million in GOP primaries. That means only 22 percent of Latinos voted in Republican contests.
A word of caution: the Republican nomination was decided very early on, so those numbers may be skewed. However, it is worth looking at the proportion of Latino voters participating in the Democratic presidential primaries in key states:
Latino turnout in Democratic primaries
California: 16 percent in 2004, 29 percent in 2008
Florida: 9 percent in 2004, 12 percent in 2008
Texas: 24 percent in 2004, 34 percent in 2008
So, what are the projections at this time?
WASHINGTON — A record 11.9 million Hispanic-Americans will vote in this year's presidential elections, a staggering 59 percent more than cast ballots in 2004, a progressive think tank estimated on Wednesday.But we still need to work on those numbers:
Emphasis added. That means that if 40% of Latinos voted for Bush in 2004, the split was roughly 4.5 million for Kerry and 3 million for Bush, a 1.5 million votes difference in states like New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, and Georgia, where Bob Barr's bid for the Presidency as a Libertarian may put it in play. If the Democrats have a 3-to-1 advantage this year, it means that 8.925 million would vote Democrat while 2.975 will vote Republican. That would be a 5.95 million vote difference or almost 4 times greater than in 2004.There are 45.5 million people of Hispanic origin in this country, according to 2007 U.S. Census Bureau data. Hispanic-Americans now make up 15 percent of the population - eclipsing African-Americans, at 13 percent, as the largest U.S. minority - and are on track to hit 29 percent of the population by the year 2050.
Of those, 29 million are adults, roughly 13 million of whom are registered to vote. Unprecedented voter registration efforts within the Hispanic community, however, are likely to drive up that number to 14 million by November, said Rosenberg. Combining that number with recent voter participation levels, he said, means that 11.9 million Hispanics will likely vote in the general elections, up from 7.5 million in 2004.
I cannot stress this enough; politics is like the lottery in that you've got to be in it to win it. As a group - however diverse we are - greater participation means greater access. It's time to make sure we're registered to vote, that our Latino loved ones are registered as well, and that each of us spread the message that voting matters. If we can improve on those turnout numbers and can maintain that favorable proportion, we could do some serious muscle-flexing this election cycle.
We all know the saying tu voto es tu voz. But this year, tu voto es tu voz, tu seguridad, y tu deber. Which translates to "your vote is your voice, your security, and your duty."
We got millions of people to go out to march. Voting is a heck of a lot easier, so, lets go do it.
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Excellent analysis. This is a historic election and I'm hopeful that people of color will step up and make our voices heard. I also think that Barack Obama will be a good candidate for all the people ... not just Black & Brown people.
Off-topic -- where can I go to learn about McCain vs Obama on the issue of our US policy towards Cuba?
peace, Villager
Villager, I agree with you across the board. On Cuba:
http://www.cfr.org/publication/14758/
It may be a little dated but it gives you an idea of where they stand with respect to Cuba.
El Loco,
If I was still living in the US, I would be out there voting for Obama.
But since I live in PR and can't vote in the general election, I hope that those eligible to vote, research the candidates and what they promise to the Latino community living in the US. I hope they don't base their decision on skin color. I read in an article printed in El Nuevo Dia (PR newspaper) where they quoted an old Hispanic man from New York who saying that Blacks think they are better than Hispanics and that is why he is voting for Hillary.
Good post and thanks for being informative.
Help me undestand...is Obama just waiting to get the chekered flag of the Democratic nomination before he reaches out to Latinos? I'mtrying to gage the amount of courting that Obama has shown our community.
I undersatnd why he didn't focus on California, but Oye me...I don't think I seen a single advertisment on any of the local Spanish stations.
To be honest me preocuapa que se le va a pasar el tren. Will he wait to long to offer a message to those Latinos that sit on the fence.
I read in an article printed in El Nuevo Dia (PR newspaper) where they quoted an old Hispanic man from New York who saying that Blacks think they are better than Hispanics and that is why he is voting for Hillary.
Lucilla, for informational purposes, I was born and raised in P.R. I moved to NYC when I was 25 and now I live in Upstate NY. As far as my age, lets just say that I can still claim I've spent most of my life in P.R.
As you must be aware, racial & ethnic dynamics are very different in the U.S. and in P.R. The truth is that there are many people - Latinos and others - who are not going to vote for Obama because he's Black. There are many people -Latinos and others - who will vote for Obama because he's Black (or at least because he's not white). You can't worry about those people because they are set in their preferences and there's no way to have a rational discussion that will make them change their minds.
The only thing Obama can do is worry about everyone else. The people who have no problem with his skin color, the people who think they don't have an issue with his skin color (you know them, the ones who say "I'm not racist, but" and then something really stupid comes out of their mouths or the white Liberals who end up making racially insensitive remarks just because they don't know any better), and the people who may have an issue with his skin color but make a conscious decision to set aside those prejudices.
Those are the only ones who can change their minds.
Lopez, one caveat before I answer: I was not an Obama or Clinton guy. I was a Kucinich supporter. He withdrew just before the NY primaries so I didn't get to vote for him and I voted for Hillary. A while back I changed my support from Hillary to "whoever wins the Democratic primary" primarily because I really disliked the way Clinton was running her campaign but I had some concerns about Obama's ideas in some areas.
With that out of the way, I believe Obama has been reaching out to the Latino community. He had Congressman Luis Gutierrez in his campaign from the start. He courted and obtained Bill Richardson's endorsement. When he campaigned in P.R. he made TV commercial in Spanish.
I don't think it's an issue of Obama not reaching out to the Latino community. I really believe that the Latino community in general feels more comfortable with Hillary than with Obama because of the familiarity and history. That, plus the fact that the substantive differences between Clinton and Obama are almost negligible, works against Obama in the primaries.
Once this race is settled - which should be any time this week - Latinos will be faced with the real choices: Obama or McCain. And in most issues, there are stark contrasts between them that - again, generally since Latinos are really a heterogeneous crew - will work in Obama's favor.
Just keep that in mind, Lopez. The choices are not Obama or Clinton or McCain. The choices are Obama or McCain.